Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 99524.833230 104877.895302 110224.628151 115962.212056 121941.278742 127984.706571 134551.240651
2025-08-10 90400.414170 98573.743364 106960.439763 116198.519021 126077.776438 136315.032222 147714.115067
2025-08-17 83723.487870 93810.629854 104384.315203 116272.309514 129242.996341 142942.866037 158484.052412
2025-08-24 79408.471550 91016.161260 103401.026966 117561.834455 133267.248083 150113.951951 169512.697532
2025-08-31 74980.264321 87695.263535 101476.444499 117469.463316 135462.811877 155024.782443 177842.854854
2025-09-07 72253.195912 86029.093113 101168.224805 118966.908824 139242.799716 161543.902146 187847.532310
2025-09-14 69591.294618 84243.089038 100551.984178 119956.135012 142313.930807 167165.884551 196774.067975
2025-09-21 66724.617835 82053.439938 99323.787983 120104.191987 144304.471661 171470.657976 204139.262860
2025-09-28 64160.405688 80081.269211 98224.382942 120286.177498 146235.590821 175632.853724 211290.667820
2025-10-05 62794.188179 79440.373406 98606.915508 122135.540941 150058.368008 181950.750452 220933.230698
2025-10-12 61368.150763 78649.455529 98745.222111 123639.202288 153434.151850 187729.186812 229953.422948
2025-10-19 59692.809984 77479.698487 98364.328272 124464.653894 155961.348940 192487.021986 237772.400841
2025-10-26 57712.794332 75886.642443 97436.713569 124610.544787 157676.163966 196310.689623 244547.050287
2025-11-02 55998.324953 74560.710014 96781.495155 125042.794326 159706.084781 200498.862145 251769.856491
2025-11-09 54234.715679 73108.478961 95913.614558 125162.780344 161316.606356 204160.804363 258358.127808
2025-11-16 53198.302357 72530.635473 96090.852199 126541.776092 164447.947431 209654.190079 267174.529607
2025-11-23 51518.475838 71074.456500 95119.892788 126445.885996 165726.101076 212876.555228 273230.577099
2025-11-30 50722.173696 70722.736214 95511.637329 128036.493867 169085.299383 218644.213697 282418.314759
2025-12-07 49724.990405 70073.335215 95494.977652 129086.927995 171756.329733 223567.384787 290589.654412
2025-12-14 48380.074051 68925.087098 94802.430186 129244.147213 173280.174616 227061.607308 297002.068430
2025-12-21 47116.808099 67845.508612 94162.924901 129437.364811 174825.554726 230570.507568 303436.154869
2025-12-28 46673.651150 67840.938690 94903.614485 131400.629092 178622.937051 236904.567424 313425.001815
2026-01-04 46099.321132 67638.280819 95369.010565 132996.659982 181950.669683 242662.827918 322725.267935